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Determination of The Middle Income Trap: Theoretical Framework and An Econometric Application on Turkey's Position (1950-2016)

In this study, whether the Turkey's economy is in middle income trap or not is examined econometrically with time series analysis for 1950-2016 period by using the Robertson and Ye (2013) approach. In the study, while the position in middle income trap of the Turkish economy is analyzed as economically, the state stationarity of the per capita GDP series derived from real and/or PPP types from different sources is investigated separately by traditional and structural breaks unit root tests. As a result of the study, when the effects of multiple structural breaks to be occur in the per capita real GDP series in the review period are considered, the position in middle income trap of the Turkish economy has also been confirmed from an econometric point of view. These results reveals that Turkey's economy can be able to catch up economic growth rates over its potential and these growth rates to make sustainable is necessary, In order that Turkey's economy be able to get rid of from position in the middle income trap according to the all currently alternative approaches.

Middle-Income Trap, Sustainable Growth, Turkey's Economy, Time Series Analysis.


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